Russia's mounting losses in Ukraine are accelerating at an unprecedented rate, with the US pushing for a peace deal. Over the past 10 months, Russian casualties have surged faster than any previous period since the full-scale invasion in 2022, according to BBC analysis. This surge is particularly evident in 2025, where peace efforts intensified under US President Donald Trump's administration, leading to a 40% increase in soldier obituaries compared to the previous year. The BBC has confirmed the names of nearly 160,000 individuals killed fighting for Russia in Ukraine, with the real death toll likely much higher. Military experts estimate that the confirmed deaths represent 45-65% of the total, suggesting a potential death toll of 243,000 to 352,000 Russians. The number of obituaries serves as a preliminary indicator of confirmed losses, with some requiring additional verification. 2025 began with a low number of published obituaries in January, but rose in February when Trump and Putin discussed ending the war. Peaks in August and October coincided with presidential meetings and a 28-point US peace proposal, respectively, with an average of 322 obituaries published per day during these periods. The Kremlin's territorial gains are seen as a strategy to influence negotiations with the US, with Putin aide Yuri Ushakov acknowledging the positive impact of recent successes. Murat Mukashev, an activist who opposed Putin, gambled on a quick peace deal and paid the ultimate price. Mukashev, who had participated in protests against police violence and joined rallies for LGBT rights and Alexei Navalny's release, was detained and charged with drug dealing. He refused a defense ministry contract, but later signed up for military service in November 2024, hoping for a swift release before a peace deal. His death in June 2025 highlights the trend of non-military volunteers joining the front lines. The majority of Russians killed in 2025 had no prior military experience. However, the battle for Avdiivka in October 2023 marked a shift, with a steady increase in casualties among 'volunteers' who signed up since the invasion. Local governments, under pressure to maintain recruitment, offer high payouts and target individuals with large debts. This strategy has allowed the Kremlin to compensate for heavy losses without resorting to large-scale mandatory mobilization. By October, over 30,000 people had signed up for military service this year, with Nato Secretary-General Mark Rutte estimating 25,000 Russian soldiers killed monthly. Despite the high recruitment rate, there are reports of pressure and coercion, especially among conscripts and those with criminal records. Recruits often mistakenly believe they can return to their old lives with money after a year of service. The defense ministry's contracts are automatically renewed until the war ends, with new recruits earning up to 10 million rubles annually. Nato estimates 1.1 million Russian dead and wounded, with an official estimating 250,000 fatalities. The BBC's calculations align with this, excluding militia deaths in occupied eastern Ukraine regions, estimated at 21,000 to 23,500. Ukraine has also sustained heavy losses, with President Volodymyr Zelensky reporting 46,000 battlefield deaths and 380,000 wounded, while other estimates suggest a potential death toll of 140,000 Ukrainians.
