The Rise of Gen Z Catholics: Fact or Fiction?
In a recent wave of news reports, a surprising claim has emerged: Generation Z Catholics are on the rise in the United States. But is this surge real, or is it just a statistical anomaly? Let's dive into the data and uncover the truth.
The Claim: Gen Z Catholics Outnumber Protestants
According to ZENIT and Magisterium AI, two reputable Catholic sources, data from the 2023 Cooperative Election Study (CES) suggests that Gen Z adults, born roughly between 1997 and 2012, are more likely to identify as Catholic than Protestant. The CES report found that in 2023, 21% of Gen Z identified as Catholic, while only 19% identified as Protestant.
But here's where it gets controversial...
Challenging the Data: A Different Perspective
EWTN News and the Pew Research Center's Religion and Public Life team have presented a contrasting view. Brian Schaffner, co-director of CES, suggests that the actual percentage of Gen Z Catholics is likely closer to 14-16%, based on a broader context of surveys. The Pew Research Center's recent Religious Landscape Study found that among the youngest adults (born between 2000-06), there are twice as many Protestants as Catholics, with 28% identifying as Protestant and only 14% as Catholic.
Furthermore, the Pew team's research indicates that young adults as a whole are less religious than older generations, and Catholicism is no exception. In fact, their report, "Religion Holds Steady in America," reveals that more young people are leaving Catholicism than joining it.
Data Variations: Why the Discrepancy?
If the Pew researchers find more Protestants among young adults, why does the CES data differ? Schaffner explains that while the 2023 CES data shows a higher percentage of Gen Z Catholics, it's important to consider sampling errors. He notes that the 2023 figure is an outlier compared to previous years' findings.
Ryan Burge, a religion and politics researcher, also raises doubts about the 2023 CES data due to "aberrations." He highlights that the data for millennials and Gen Z shows a significant variation compared to previous years, with a notable increase in the percentage of Catholics.
The Catholic Surge: Fact or Fiction?
While the CES data has been questioned, it doesn't necessarily mean that there aren't increases in Gen Z adults drawn to the faith. EWTN News has reported a notable rise in baptisms and confirmations among students on college campuses in 2025, indicating a deepening desire for certainty and stability among young adults. Additionally, the Cardinal Newman Society has found an increase in students at Catholic colleges, with a 75% growth in enrollment since 1970.
So, is the surge in Gen Z Catholics a statistical anomaly or a genuine trend? The data presents an intriguing debate, and we invite you to share your thoughts and opinions in the comments below. Are you convinced by the CES findings, or do you side with the Pew researchers? Let's discuss!
